History

Week

June 15, 2026 to June 22, 2026

Dominant regime

Selective defensive USD + weak high beta + selective carry, with no clean risk-on regime.

Strongest currency

USD - best relative balance, but not clean enough for blind chasing.

Weakest operational currency

JPY - operationally vulnerable due to extreme institutional short, BoJ risk and JGB 10Y near the 2.75% threshold.

Main technical scenario

AUD/USD - post-RBA bearish-pressure study - conditional Tier B.

Status

reviewed

Open W25 Download W25 PDF

Week 1 closed

Week 1 closed — USD/CHF thesis worked, 0.8000 management was the mistake

The thesis did not fail. Price paid. The mistake was turning a paid thesis into stubbornness after rejection at the 0.8000 big figure.

View post-mortem

Week2026-W24

StatusClosed

Macro thesiscorrect

Risk managementfailed after T1 / big figure

The W24 PDF, report.json and raw post-mortem remain preserved in the public archive. W24 is not treated as the current week.

USD 2026-W24 · 02/06/2026

melhora

Long líquido 3.758

Z-score: 0,79
Tendência: +2.908
Catalisador: +4.237
Veto: +571

Long USD reconstruindo

EUR 2026-W24 · 02/06/2026

melhora

Long líquido 48.866

Z-score: -0,39
Tendência: +19.440
Catalisador: +15.353
Veto: +8.666

Long reconstruído antes do ECB

JPY 2026-W24 · 02/06/2026

deterioração

Short líquido -129.567

Z-score: -1,72
Tendência: -14.900
Catalisador: -35.662
Veto: -54.465

Shorts crescendo agressivamente

GBP 2026-W24 · 02/06/2026

melhora

Short líquido -52.218

Z-score: -0,07
Tendência: +9.180
Catalisador: +12.089
Veto: -9.159

Short-covering recente

AUD 2026-W24 · 02/06/2026

deterioração

Long líquido 41.812

Z-score: -0,54
Tendência: -18.343
Catalisador: -43.832
Veto: -43.178

Liquidação sistemática de longs

NZD 2026-W24 · 02/06/2026

melhora

Short líquido -28.246

Z-score: 1,14
Tendência: +5.933
Catalisador: +12.367
Veto: +10.904

Short-covering sistemático

CAD 2026-W24 · 02/06/2026

deterioração

Short líquido -94.111

Z-score: -1,95
Tendência: -25.229
Catalisador: -62.880
Veto: -77.869

Short extremo e piorando

CHF 2026-W24 · 02/06/2026

melhora

Short líquido -32.909

Z-score: 0,62
Tendência: +2.231
Catalisador: +4.028
Veto: +3.288

Covering leve de shorts

Histórico em construção: o acervo público atual contém um ponto revisado por moeda. Novas semanas ampliarão cada série sem alterar os registros anteriores.

2026-W25

AXIOM FX - Weekly Macro FX Report

W24 closure

Week 1 closed — USD/CHF thesis worked, 0.8000 management was the mistake

W24 artifacts preserved

Initial COT history

Mapa COT público