Technical scenario

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Status: Observation / eligible for human review only after the RBA.

AUD/USD has the best technical alignment, but the RBA blocks pre-event validation.

Macro reason

AUD is weak in spot, COT shows long liquidation and AUD/JPY weakened, showing high beta pressure.

Validation condition

Less hawkish or dovish RBA, sustained loss of 0.7000 or failed retest in the 0.7050-0.7070 area.

Technical reference entry

0.7050-0.7070 failed retest, or close below 0.7000 after the RBA.

Technical invalidation

Recovery above 0.7140; stronger invalidation above 0.7180.

Technical stop

Above 0.7140; around 70 to 90 pips depending on the reference.

Hypothetical technical targets

0.6920 · 0.6850-0.6820

Main risk

False breakdown after the RBA.

Catalysts

RBA Cash Rate on 16/06/2026 at 01:30 BRT.

Conclusion

Main educational post-event study; not validated before the event.

Status: Observation / protected if already existing / new validation only after the SNB.

USD/CHF has good macro/carry structure, but 0.8000 and SNB risk block a clean setup.

Macro reason

USD remains the best relative long leg and CHF is structural funding, but the SNB is binary risk.

Validation condition

Sustained price above 0.8000-0.8015 after SNB and no pro-CHF reversal.

Technical reference entry

Retest of 0.8000-0.8015 holding, or pullback holding 0.7970/0.7950 after the event.

Technical invalidation

Loss of 0.7950; stronger invalidation below 0.7915.

Technical stop

Below 0.7950; around 50 to 65 pips from the reference area.

Hypothetical technical targets

0.8060 · 0.8080-0.8100

Main risk

SNB reversal or rejection at the 0.8000 big figure.

Catalysts

SNB Policy Rate on 18/06/2026 at 05:30 BRT; USD Retail Sales on 17/06/2026.

Conclusion

Best macro/carry structure, but not clean before the SNB.

Status: Observation / HICP-dependent.

EUR/USD has weak COT and spot, but HICP can reprice the reading.

Macro reason

EUR saw strong long liquidation in COT and lost spot strength.

Validation condition

Weak or dovish HICP/Core HICP, loss of 1.1530-1.1500 and failed retest.

Technical reference entry

1.1530-1.1560 rejection after HICP, or clean break below 1.1500.

Technical invalidation

Recovery above 1.1580; larger invalidation above 1.1625.

Technical stop

Above 1.1580; around 50 pips from 1.1530.

Hypothetical technical targets

1.1450 · 1.1380-1.1400

Main risk

Strong HICP triggering EUR recovery.

Catalysts

HICP/Core HICP on 17/06/2026 at 08:00 BRT.

Conclusion

Lower-quality conditional study than AUD/USD and USD/CHF.

Status: Vetoed before CPI, employment and BoE.

GBP/USD has spot and COT fragility, but too many events block a clean reading.

Macro reason

GBP has good real carry, but COT worsened and the calendar is the most contaminated of the week.

Validation condition

Only after CPI, employment, wages, BoE and retail sales.

Technical reference entry

Loss of 1.3360 with failed recovery after events.

Technical invalidation

Post-event top; exact level is a data gap.

Technical stop

DATA GAP.

Hypothetical technical targets

DATA GAP

Main risk

Data sequence generating whipsaw.

Catalysts

CPI/Core CPI on 17/06; employment/wages and BoE on 18/06; Retail Sales on 19/06.

Conclusion

Post-event study, not a pre-event operational scenario.

Status: Observation / not clean.

NZD/USD weakened in spot, but 2Y-policy blocks an automatic short reading.

Macro reason

NZD weakened versus USD, but 2Y-policy and 2Y real carry still protect the currency.

Validation condition

Next COT worsens NZD, 2Y-policy starts to decline and price breaks with continuity.

Technical reference entry

DATA GAP.

Technical invalidation

DATA GAP.

Technical stop

DATA GAP.

Hypothetical technical targets

DATA GAP

Main risk

Rates repricing or NZD short covering.

Catalysts

No single dominant catalyst in the window.

Conclusion

Watchlist only, not a clean reading.

Technical Scenario of the Week

Reviewed conditional studies

AUD/USD

USD/CHF

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

NZD/USD