Weekly brief Selective defensive USD + weak high beta + selective carry, with no clean risk-on regime.
The week does not confirm broad risk-on or a classic full risk-off regime. USD shows relative strength against several currencies, while AUD and NZD remain pressured in spot. Precious metals weakened, so defensive demand is not cleanly confirmed through gold or silver.
- The week is dominated by central banks and inflation: BoJ, RBA, SNB, BoE, UK CPI/Core CPI, euro-area HICP, Japan CPI and Canada CPI.
- USD holds the best relative strength, but the setup is not clean: 2Y yields and real yields lost momentum and weekly COT deteriorated marginally.
- AUD is weak in spot, COT and cross-asset regime, but the RBA blocks pre-event validation.
- CHF looks like structural funding because policy is at zero and inflation is low, but the SNB blocks aggressive treatment.
- JPY remains veto-watch: extreme institutional short, BoJ risk and JGB 10Y near the critical threshold.
- Central banks may dominate and invalidate static scores.
- Selective USD strength may continue without broad risk-on confirmation.
- Funding or crowded shorts may squeeze in JPY, CHF or CAD.
- AUD/NZD may recover if rates reprice after the RBA.
Consolidated W25 reading
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Manual W25 dashboard
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Declared gaps and source boundary
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Conditional studies and vetoes
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Dated events and risks
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Published conditional studies
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