Conditional studies, vetoes and observed pairs from the manual report.
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AUD/USD has the best technical alignment, but the RBA blocks pre-event validation.
Condition: Less hawkish or dovish RBA, sustained loss of 0.7000 or failed retest in the 0.7050-0.7070 area.
Conclusion: Main educational post-event study; not validated before the event.
USD/CHF has good macro/carry structure, but 0.8000 and SNB risk block a clean setup.
Condition: Sustained price above 0.8000-0.8015 after SNB and no pro-CHF reversal.
Conclusion: Best macro/carry structure, but not clean before the SNB.
EUR/USD has weak COT and spot, but HICP can reprice the reading.
Condition: Weak or dovish HICP/Core HICP, loss of 1.1530-1.1500 and failed retest.
Conclusion: Lower-quality conditional study than AUD/USD and USD/CHF.
GBP/USD has spot and COT fragility, but too many events block a clean reading.
Condition: Only after CPI, employment, wages, BoE and retail sales.
Conclusion: Post-event study, not a pre-event operational scenario.
NZD/USD weakened in spot, but 2Y-policy blocks an automatic short reading.
Condition: Next COT worsens NZD, 2Y-policy starts to decline and price breaks with continuity.
Conclusion: Watchlist only, not a clean reading.
| Scenario | Status | Reason | Rule | Reconsideration |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY before BoJ | Vetoed | Extreme COT, BoJ and JGB near threshold | Rule 8B | Reassess only after BoJ and stable JGB 10Y |
| Chased USD/CAD | Reduced | CAD is weak, but CAD shorts are crowded | Rule 9 | Wait for Canada CPI and lower crowdedness |
| AUD/CHF before RBA/SNB | Vetoed | Two central banks contaminate both legs | Rules 7/14 | Reassess after events |
| GBP/CHF before BoE/SNB | Vetoed | Heavy GBP and CHF calendar | Rule 7 | Reassess after BoE/SNB |
| Aggressive CHF short before SNB | Vetoed | SNB can invalidate CHF funding | Rule 7 | Validate only after SNB |
| AUD/USD before RBA | Reduced | Best technical study, but RBA blocks anticipation | Rule 7 | RBA confirmation and price validation below 0.7000/retest |